08.04.04
The Kerry Bump
Via http://www.thismodernworld.com/ :
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-0802print.html
“John Kerry saw slightly stronger support among likely voters in 16 battleground states during the Democratic National Convention, according to the latest Zogby Interactive poll. Mr. Kerry now leads in 13 states, up from the 12 states he held a week ago, while President Bush leads in three states.
The latest poll, conducted July 26-30, was conducted simultaneously with the convention, though many voters were polled before Mr. Kerry’s acceptance speech. Mr. Kerry’s slight post-convention boost is what pollster John Zogby said he expected. Only a slim margin of voters is undecided, he says, so the conventions aren’t likely to cause major swings of support. “The president will get a small bump but — like Kerry — not a big one. There is just not enough give this year,” Mr. Zogby says.
The leads Messrs. Bush and Kerry hold in 11 of the 16 states are within the margin of error, which varies between +/- 2.5 and +/- 4.4 percentage points. Of the 13 states in which Mr. Kerry is in the lead, all but five are within the margin of error. Mr. Bush’s top spots, in three states (Arkansas, Nevada and Ohio), are all within the margin of error.”